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In a year of significant national elections taking place around the globe, two ongoing conflicts and tensions rising among other major actors, here is the mid-year state of play in geopolitics — and the impact for companies.
Impact for companies: Global companies are quietly reducing their reliance on China for manufacturing and supply chains, which can benefit other regional markets, though there will not be a decoupling from the world’s second largest economy. Companies may be caught in the crossfire as Washington and Beijing impose tariffs, exports controls, subsidies and other economic tools to drive economic, energy, investment and climate interests.
Impact for companies: The U.S. and Europe remain the world’s largest economic partnership, but it is not one without trade, tax and technology disputes for Washington and Brussels to manage. Global companies will watch if the next EU Parliament and Commission adopts a more euro-skeptic approach on business regulation, climate, energy, migration and foreign policy. The July 4 election in the UK could lead to new British policies in some of these areas.
Impact for companies: Regional trade and travel are being impacted. A broader conflict would trigger volatility in global energy markets and more serious business disruptions, including uncertainty in global oil pricing.
Impact for companies: Companies will be watching for policy outcomes from elections in Taiwan, Indonesia, India and South Africa, among other emerging markets. Economic shocks, the COVID pandemic and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East are leading to deglobalization, nationalism and protectionism — creating a more fragmented, multi-polar world for companies to navigate, with less compliance with established global rules and competing governance models, political interests and values.
Author
Washington DC | International consultant to governments, multinational corporations and foundations on global economic, trade, development and climate issues.
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Managing risk & reputation in an election year
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